Arms Race in the 21st Century

Essays | David Wu | August 29th, 2022.

At the dawn of the new Millennia in 2000, the United States, China, and Russia — the three most prominent members of the United Nations Security Council — were spending 320.09 Billion USD, 22.24 Billion USD, and 9.23 Billion USD on the military, respectively. However, the spending in the 2020s dwarfs those numbers. Today, the three nations are spending 777.70 Billion USD, 230.00 Billion USD, and 16.27 Billion USD, respectively. Armed with vast financial capital, militaries are churning out more advanced military equipment than Mcdonald's could with beef patties. This is not the first time humanity has witnessed a similar scale of military overdrive. During the Cold-War era, competition between capitalism and communism led to similar fiscal trends seen in the second decade of the 2000s. Regardless of the incentives behind the military overdrive, weapons have become more lethal and impactful on civilians. Instead of nukes and fallout shelters during the last arms race, the nations today concentrate on cyber warfare and hypersonic missiles. It is vital to comprehend each new development’s potential risk to societal tranquility. 

People in the 21st century could not live without the internet. Just like ordinary people, the military depends on cyberspace to render orders, share intelligence, etc. This dangerous dependency creates an opportunity for enemies to leave the military in the dark by compromising the networks — a military without communication among the branches would be intractable from higher commands. Cyberattacks have become more frequent, even when nations are at peace. Furthermore, technologies are so advanced that misinformation through Artificial Intelligence could allow opponents to direct domestic military orders. An example could be the failed Russian attempt to create a video of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy issuing surrender orders in the early days of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. 

The impacts on regular citizens' lives could unveil in several ways. Because all cyber infrastructure depends on electricity, an Electromagnetic Bomb (E.M.P.) is sufficient to neutralize all electronics within a certain effective radius. The weapon causes chaos in cities because services — police, ambulance, water, sewage, etc — would be irresponsive without power and transportation. The other possibility is a distortion of the nation’s web networks. For instance, a hack on the nation’s financial and critical corporate networks could send the economy into disarray. By seizing the vital online resources from the target nation, the enemy could effectively bargain and decrease societal funding for the military. The disruptive nature of any cyberattack isn’t just confined to the military; sometimes, it is in the opponent's best interest to weaken the nation’s domestic capabilities at the expense of innocent civilians.

On the other hand, hypersonic missiles have a much more immediate effect. Contemporary missiles for long-range strikes — usually nuclear ordinances — are ballistic missiles that reach semi-low-earth orbit but strike down to the earth from space at 2.5 times the speed of sound. Few nations own ballistic missiles because of their expensive research and devastating effects. Nonetheless, hypersonic missiles send shivers to military generals more than ballistic shockwaves do. The hypersonic missile could change its trajectory and destination, hit the location at five times the speed of sound, and avoid anti-ballistic missile defense and radar systems. In other words, nations could defend no one from hypersonic missiles. It is frightening to consider that Russia has already utilized hypersonic missiles three times in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, while China and the United States already have research and deployment-ready missiles in military arsenals. Imagine the magnitude of devastation if nations used the hypersonic missiles for their actual purpose in total warfare: mass nuclear bombing. 

Taking a step back and looking at the course of developments in human history, one can’t help but notice that humanity has consistently found ways to be more destructive. From stones to crossbows to guns to bombs, society seems to manifest on a self-destructive path. Nonetheless, hope remains for civilization. History evinced medical breakthroughs, educational nourishments, and rising living standards: through the vast abyss of conflicts and politics, arrays of hope shine through the cracks. Even some of the weapons listed today are making the world safer because of the idea of Mutually Assured Destruction: the hazards are so immense that neither side would risk starting a war. Irrespective of the countless struggles and worsening global security, the wish for international peace and well-being would live perpetually.